“It’s very common during an el Niño for us to have water levels that are higher than just purely astronomical sources.“
— Ryan Kittell, meteorologist, US National Weather Service, video time: 6:26

“Monday’s (10/26) record tide in San Pedro came in nearly a foot and a half [1.37 feet] above what the moon and sun alone would have made…on Tuesday’s high, the ocean’s own swelling [due to heat] did more than the moon did.” Video time ~7:00

Click the arrow below to start the film.

[Posted by Chuck Almdale]

This video is up-to-date, with discussion of last week’s and this week’s rain and very high tides, and discusses the coming winter. We will be having three more king tides which will be higher than what we just had. Whether they cause more damage than we just had depends primarily on whether the ocean cools down and whether or not the winter storm surges coincide with the yearly astronomical high tides.

This is 17 minutes long and anyone who is invested in the coast, works for agencies that deal with the coast, or is simply interested is what is coming should take the time to watch it all the way through. There are several ads that pop up, but within 5-10 seconds a little “SKIP” button appears in the lower right. Click it right away to make the commercial disappear and the video return.

Here is a link to the NOAA tides for Mugu Lagoon, just south of Oxnard, which I use for Malibu Lagoon predictions. NOAA tide predictions are based entirely on reliable astronomical factors (sun, moon and orbital phenomena). They do not take into account ocean warming, Kelvin waves, storm surges or el Niño effects. Earlier this week San Pedro Harbor had a tide more than 16 inches higher than the NOAA tide table prediction.

The NOAA astronomical chart below predicted a high tide of 6.53 feet in Mugu Lagoon on October 27. If you follow the link just above and change the dates for the predictions, you’ll see that high tide in Mugu Lagoon on November 25 will be 6.89 feet, 7.00 feet on December 24 , 6.83 feet on January 22 and 6.35 feet on February 19. If the water remains warm, and if there are storm surges during these king tides, sea level could easily be several feet higher.

Anyone living, working, driving or just having fun near the coast really needs to know “what’s up with the ocean.”

I still remember the storm of January 1983, when huge waves, higher than the Santa Monica pier, destroyed the outer 1/3rd of that pier, as well as other piers up and down the SoCal coast. We went down to the ocean to watch them roll in. Police had cordoned off the large parking lot next to the beach just south of Pico Blvd., as it was full of water and pieces of pier, and several policemen were stationed there to keep people out. A few dozen people watched the tremendous waves with us, and we were all astounded when a surfer, wet-suited with board under arm and leash already attached to his foot, walked across the parking lot and began to wend his way through the pieces of pier pilings and timbers washed up on the beach. The police got on the bullhorn immediately and ordered him to turn back, which he wisely did. There were several pilings still thrashing in the surf zone, in the process of washing up onto the beach. He could very easily have been killed.